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The New York Times

THE ECONOMY: IS A RECESSION ON THE WAY?; PORTENTS OF TURNS FOR THE WORSE-OR THE BETTER

First published:By ROBERT D. HERSHEY JR. November 29, 1987
LEAD: EVER since the Oct. 19 stock market collapse, most analysts have been saying that the economy would slow down as a result, perhaps enough to send the nation stumbling into recession. They argue that consumers, who account for two-thirds of the gross national product, have lost both wealth and confidence and will pull in their horns accordingly.

EVER since the Oct. 19 stock market collapse, most analysts have been saying that the economy would slow down as a result, perhaps enough to send the nation stumbling into recession. They argue that consumers, who account for two-thirds of the gross national product, have lost both wealth and confidence and will pull in their horns accordingly. Business executives could also dampen the economy by deciding to scale back production or to carry smaller stocks of goods.

How can we tell what's ahead? A discussion follows of some of the broad economic issues of the day and of statistical indicators that in coming weeks might show if a recession looms.

Question. The stock market is said to be one of the more reliable predictors of business conditions. Does it determine as well as forecast?

Answer. It could, but it doesn't have to. Whether we get a recession depends mainly on the psychological reaction to the market shock. A reduced ability to buy, though important, is clearly a lesser factor.

Q. If people cut spending, doesn't that mean they save more? Wouldn't that be just what is needed?

A. In the short term, a sharp cut in either private or public spending would almost certainly produce recession. Even some of the staunchest supporters of President Reagan's push to reduce government are warning against too rapid a cut in the Federal deficit.

In the long term, however, most economists agree that the United States does need to save more and consume less. Ultimately, the American standard of living depends on the nation's productivity and this can't be increased without huge investments in new technology, training and other things that allow us to use our resources more efficiently.

Q. If the big worry now is recession, what are the early signs?

A. The Commerce Department's monthly Index of Leading Indicators, which next comes out Tuesday, was designed as a sort of early warning system. And it has proved useful, though in recent years it has come under attack. Some experts say some of the 11 components of the index are obsolete. For example, ''vendor performance,'' or the percentage of companies reporting slower deliveries from suppliers, is less significant now that many companies find it more efficient to keep stockpiles lean. But other components, such as new orders for consumer goods, remain closely watched.

Q. Retail sales seem to have held up pretty well since stock prices plunged. Isn't that reassuring?

A. Not entirely. Although the stock collapse was indeed attention-getting, consumers may need time to fully recognize their new situation and to put any needed spending curbs in place. Some people, for example, have not yet received a mutual fund, profit-sharing or other occasional financial statement since the plunge. They may be sobered when they do. Many economists are waiting anxiously to see how the Christmas shopping season goes.

Q. But it is good, isn't it, that the Federal Reserve has responded to the drop by pumping more money into the economy?

A. Most economists think this was an essential step, one that has, in fact, helped bring interest rates back down. The danger, of course, is that the Fed will overstay this policy and that the extra money will revive inflation, driving interest rates up again and slowing business activity. It takes some months for a definite trend to show up in, say, consumer prices, and by then severe damage may have been done.

Q. How can one tell what the Fed is up to?

A. Watch the interest rate on Federal funds, which are overnight loans among banks. Check Friday's newspaper to see how much the banking system is being forced to borrow through the Fed's discount window. Higher rates suggest a tighter Fed policy.

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